Gartner releases list of Top 10 disruptive technologies and their implications 30 May, 2008 By Erin Bell

Gartner recently released its top 10 list of disruptive technologies that are most likely to shape the IT landscape over the next five years, with "disruptive technology" defined as something that causes a major change in the accepted way of doing things, including business models, processes, revenue streams, industry dynamics and consumer behavior.

Rounding out the rest of the Top 10 list are cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms, Web mashups, user interface, ubiquitous computing, contextual computing, augmented reality, and semantics.

The implications for CIOs, according to Gartner Fellow David Cearley, is that they will have to start thinking beyond the constraints of the conventional in order to identify the technologies that might be in widespread use a few years from now. Those who see their jobs as simply "keeping the data center running, business continuity planning and finding new tech toys to show people" will not survive.

Gartner recommends that CIOs establish a formal mechanism for evaluating emerging trends and technologies, set up virtual teams of their best staff, and give them time to spend researching new ideas and innovations, especially those that are being driven by consumer and Web 2.0 technologies.

"The CIO then needs to act as a conduit from the business to the technology. He or she needs to see how it might be possible to use these technologies to solve a problem the business has identified," said Cearley.

Speaking at the Gartner Emerging Trends and Technologies Roadshow in Melbourne, Cearley predicted that business IT applications will start to mirror the features found in consumer social software such as Facebook and MySpace as companies look to improve internal collaboration as well as harness customer feedback.

"Social software provides a platform that encourages participation and feedback from employees and customers alike," Cearley said. "The added value for businesses is being able to collect this feedback into a single point that reflects collective attitudes, which can help shape a business strategy."

Gartner also predicts that web mashups, which mix content from publicly available sources, will be the dominant model for the creation of new applications, reaching 80 per cent by 2010.

"Because mashups can be created quickly and easily, they create possibilities for a new class of short-term or disposable applications that would not normally attract development dollars," said Cearley. "The ability to combine information into a common dashboard or visualise it using geo-location or mapping software is extremely powerful."

Single-threaded applications won't be able to take advantage of the power of multi-core processors, even though they are expanding the horizons of what's possible with software, which is why Gartner suggests that enterprises perform audits to identify applications that need refinement or correction to continue to meet service-level requirements in the upcoming multi-core era.

By 2010, it will cost less than $1 (U.S.) to add a three-axis accelerometer -- which allows a device, such as Nintendo's Wii controller, to sense when and how it is being moved -- to a piece of electronic equipment. "Acceleration and attitude (tilt) can be combined with technologies such as wireless to perform functions such as touch to exchange business cards," said Cearley.

And finally, according to Gartner, within the next five years, information will be presented via new user interfaces such as organic light-emitting displays, digital paper and billboards, holographic and 3D imaging and smart fabric.